Tag: Iran War

Trump’s Capitulation: Hegseth Loses his First War.

President Trump signed the now infamous Memorandum of Agreement with Iran at a Palace of Versailles dinner party last evening. From one image, it looks as if the dinner plates, silverware, and crystal wine glasses had been shoved aside so that Trump, grasping an extra large sharpie, could sign the document. Reminds me of a family dinner and getting my parents to sign my report card.

A lone candle and table top flower arrangements were the official props for this sad bit of presidential theatrics, a sad charade intending to display strength and power, but in reality, signifying a humiliating a defeat for America.

Didn’t Nixon sign some peace accord in France?

Why Trump would use a dinner party at Versailles to sign the Memorandum of Understanding is bewildering, considering that the signing of the Treaty of Versailles, signed over a century ago, was a keystone in the the rise of Nazis Germany and World War Two. The agreement is mostly a one-sided capitulation to Iran. There are a number of 30- and 60- day sticks and carrots in the agreement, however, but mostly carrots. It reflects Trump’s desire to extract himself out of his self made briar patch.

Trump’s first term trashing of Obama’a deal with Iran cascaded into an avalanche of disasters: The deaths of tens of thousands, including 13 servicemen and women in Trump’s latest war; the expenditure of 100s of billions of American taxpayer dollars; a creating critical shortage of munitions to defend our homeland.

Additionally, an unforeseen consequence of Trump killing the Obama agreement, and disengaging from dialogue with Iran, was Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct 7. This horrific attack was followed by Israel’s war of retribution against Hamas and the death of over 50,000 Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

Iran would never have greenlighted Hamas to attack Israel, I argue, if the Obama era deal — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — were in force. The horrific terrorist attack on Israel and the resultant wars on Irans’ regional surrogates and tens of thousands of civilian deaths were avoidable. These deaths and never ending wars were primarily the result of Trump’s racial animus and vendetta towards Obama, his rank amateurism, hubris, and plain stupidity.

None of the ever changing goals of the war were achieved: Iran did not end its ballistic missile program; Iran did not end its nuke program; Iran did not turn over all its fissile material to the U.S.; Iran did not end support to proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran’s regime did not change. None.

Below are some key points of America’s agreement with Iran:

And I thought it wasn’t a War: An “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts” and a final deal to follow, confirming the “permanent termination of the war.”

No Regime Change: The U.S. and Iran promise not to “interfere in each other’s internal affairs.”

The Retreat of U.S. Forces: The “U.S. will undertake to remove its forces from the proximity to Iran within 30 days of the final deal.”

Ending the U.S. Naval Blockade: The U.S. will immediately begin removing its naval blockade of Iranian ports.

“Best Efforts” to Open the Strait of Hormuz (that weren’t closed before the war): Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman.”

“Not One Penny for Tribute” …fees, well, okay: ‘Iran will consult with Oman to define future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz.’

Can we say,’graft.’ Real Estate Developer and Trump Son-in-law — Jared Kushner’s — modern Marshall Plan: The U.S and others will develop a $300 billion reconstruction and economic development plan for Iran. Funding partners TBD.

Ending Sanctions on Iran: The U.S. will “undertake to terminate all types of sanctions” against Iran in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal.

No Nuke Promise, again: Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. Pending the final deal, Iran can maintain its’ current “status quo “of its nuclear program.

The Obama Plan Redo: Iran agrees to “blend down its enriched uranium” under the supervision of the IAEA. Where have I seen IAEA oversight before? Wait, wait, it will come to me.

No New Sanctions on Iran’s Nuke Program: “The U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.”

Waivers for Iran Exporting Crude Oil: The U.S. will “issue waivers” for the export of Iranian crude oil pending termination of the sanctions.

‘Let it Go, Let it Go,’ unfreezing Iran’s assets: The US will unfreeze Iran’s frozen assets and make them fully available (pending additional negotiations).

Now He Needs the United Nations: The final deal will be endorsed by a United Nations’ Security Council binding Resolution.

The full MOU:

1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

2 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

3 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, expendable with mutual consent.

4 — Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6 — The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

7 — The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions—primary and secondary—in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

8 — The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledged the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and expressed their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

9 — Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10 — The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11 — The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Upon the implementation of the MOU, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the central bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all the necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

12 — The United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.

13 — After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

14 — The final deal will be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.

The Iran War Tax on Virginia Farmers

Virginias farmers are once again being sacrificed on Trump’s altar of stupidity and foolishness.  His Noble Great Mightiness’s war has already cost the lives of thousands in the Middle East, 13 of which are American service men and women.  In treasure every week, the war costs American taxpayers tens of billions of dollars.  Americans are also paying at the gas pumps and in grocery stores.  The defense department just presented a $200 billion reapers bill to Congress.  

Virginia’s farmers will pay additional costs as well. Not only in the rising costs of fuel and fertilizer but in sons and daughters.  Rural Americans are overrepresented in our armed forces.  Close to 45 percent of those in uniform come from counties like Louisa.

Didn’t Trump know it’s planting season.  Virginia farmers must decide what to plant this year.  Corn or soy or both.  Decisions about spending capital on new equipment must be made as well.  The soil must be tilled, the land prepped for seed. Yet, uncertainty abounds because of the war.  The confused and contradictory messages coming from the administration are unhelpful as to the war’s objectives, and most importantly, its end point. The feeds the uncertainty for farmers across Virginia and the nation.  It seems that while Iran is losing the war militarily, it is winning the war politically, strategically.  Hope and hubris are not war plans.

While this administration postures and dithers and twirls about like whirling dervishers, the supply of nitrates for fertilizer remains plugged up in the Persian Gulf, unable to make the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, that strategic strait of water on Iran’s southern shores.  Fertilizer prices have jumped as a result, on average about 20 percent.  It will take months to fix the fertilizer supply chain disruption caused by Trump’s chaotic war.  

Even if the war should end today, perhaps it’s too late for the farmers who need to make purchases now, or bet wrong earlier.  Soy doesn’t need nitrated based fertilizers, corn does.  Farmers may not take the risk of planting corn and go with soy instead.  That, however, will create a surplus of soy, thus lowering the price per bushel.  Can’t win either way.

That’s not all, because of this questionable war of choice, Trump cancelled his state visit with Xi of China.  China is the largest importer of soy in the world and last year not one American grown soybean was bought by China in retaliation for Trump’s punitive, and in some instances illegal, tariffs.  Virginia farmers lost tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars in exports because of Trump’s actions.  Virginia exports over a billion dollars’ worth of farm products to China. Not anymore. The announcement of the cancelled meeting caused the price of soy to drop.

It’s pain at the gas pumps.  We’ve all been to the gas station and noted the rise of gas and diesel prices.  Not fun paying $3.99 a gallon for gas and over $5 for diesel. They won’t be going down anytime soon.  Not with the Strait of Hormuz closed for the indefinite future and Trump threatening to put boots on Iranian ground.  

I did some research on what it cost in gas or diesel to plant and grow corn and soy, from seed to market.  Purdue University has some pretty good charts and tables that show the costs at each step of farming those crops.  There are at least 14 phases, I learned, taken in sequence to prepare the ground, plant the seeds, weed the fields, harvest the crops, and get them to market.  Most require tractors or combines or other farm vehicles.  

Basically, according to these Purdue University tables, to plant 300 acres or corn and 300 acres of soy, a farmer would use approximately 3655 gallons of fuel.  Broken down per acre, that would be $5.94 gallons per acre.  Of course there are variables like soil conditions, age of equipment, etc, that determine individual costs.  Diesel now cost about $5.59 per gallon (I didn’t deduct the taxes farmers are exempted from).  That comes out to almost $20,000 in diesel costs.  In prewar prices, it comes out to almost $13,000.  That’s a seven-thousand-dollar war tax on Virginia farmers.  Yes, it is a war tax. 

Did not Trump, his Noble Great Mightiness, this genius of all things, not see this coming?  And his equally impressive “We negotiate with bombs” Secretary of War, did he not see the potential consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?  Fools, the lot of them.

Because of Trump’s strategic failures, Virginia’s farmers are left with footing the bill for higher fertilizer costs, collapsing soy markets, and staggeringly high fuel costs at a critical time in the planting season.  

How long can Virginia’s farmers survive with this type of love from Trump? Blind obedience he demands.  ‘Suck it up,’ he says; ‘be patriotic,’ he says; ‘it’s only temporary pain,’ he says. Last year Trump authorized the payment of $30 billion in farmer bailouts because of his tariff fiasco.  This year he is already demanding that Congress pass a farm bill, immediately. He’s turning farmers into bailout junkies.

Another bailout is coming, a bribe to his “Farmers for Trump” tribe.  He thinks he can buy their silence and acquiescence.  He’s right it appears, but some are starting to see the light, it seems.  Not only is he bankrupting hard working farmers, he’s also sending many of their sons and daughters into harms way.  His uber patriotic sons and daughters never deigned to serve.  Hell, they wouldn’t be caught dead in uniform.  Barron isn’t running down to the recruiting station.  No, he was just named to the board of directors of a new company.  Another Nepo baby enriching himself and missing the wars, while our kids fight the wars. 

“I Didn’t Vote for This”

I think over the past weeks, if I got a quarter for every time I heard or read about a Trump voter saying, “I didn’t vote for this.” I could buy a box of chicken tenders and a Dr. Pepper at the local Elk Creek Store.

Mostly I think it is a bullshit dodge, a cop out, a self serving excuse. Given the chance to vote for him again, I believe, they would. Trump was pretty clear where he stood on most things and clearly articulated what he intended to do. So they knew damn well who and what they were voting for. Why? I think Trump’s racist and bigoted words and actions resonated with a majority of them and continues to resonate with them to this day.

His islamophobia and animus towards black and brown people were on full display during his campaign for a second term. His racist rhetoric was so vile and repulsive as to be disqualifying for high office. And that is without even factoring in his disastrous first term and attempted coup.

Now we learn of a woman who claimed in an 2019 FBI interview that Trump sexually assaulted her in 1984 at his Atlantic City Casino. These interviews were initially withheld from release of the Epstein files, but journalistic sleuths pointed out clues to their existence and they were later released, the Justice Department claiming an oversight.

The victim was 13 or 15 when she was raped. I believe her and she should have her day in court to demand justice for herself and other victims. You may recall that Trump oversaw the Department of Justice and FBI as President in 2019. A civil jury in 2023 found that Trump had sexually assaulted another woman in the dressing room at a department store in 1996. Notice any patterns?

Those that voted for him knew about his sexual predatory behavior. In addition to the 2023 civil jury findings, a majority were also aware of the infamous “Access Hollywood” tapes where Trump bragged about sexually battering women. Over two dozen women came forward with allegations of sexual misbehavior during his campaign for his first term in office.

So, Trump voter, don’t tell me that you didn’t vote for this. Yes, you did, and you damn well knew what you were voting for.